The 2022 hurricane season is fast approaching, and it looks to be another active one. Many of the indicators that help us predict the number of storms we’ll experience are pointing to the 2022 hurricane season being the seventh consecutive busier-than-normal season. In their pre-season forecast, Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University anticipate 19 named storms, 32% above average, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. All of those predictions exceed the 30-year averages of 14, seven and three, respectively. The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and the Gulf of Mexico is already warmer than average, the result of a current of warm tropical water that is looping unusually far into the Gulf for this time of year. It’s called the Loop Current, and it’s the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks. If you look at temperature maps of the Gulf of Mexico, you can easily spot the Loop Current. It curls up through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba, into the Gulf of Mexico, and then swings back out through the Florida Strait south of Florida as the Florida Current, where it becomes the main contributor to the Gulf Stream.
The Loop Current has the potential to supercharge a tropical storm as it passes over the Loop Current or one of its giant eddies – where it can draw enormous energy from the exceptionally deep, warm wateito a monstrous hurricane. This year, the Loop Current looks remarkably similar to the way it did in 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina crossed the Loop Current before devastating New Orleans. Warm ocean water by itself doesn’t necessarily mean more tropical storms. But once tropical storms reach waters that are around 78 F (26 C) or warmer, they can strengthen into hurricanes.Think about what happens when you boil a large pot of spaghetti on the stove and how the steam rises as the water gets hotter. As more moisture and heat rise within a hurricane, the pressure drops. The horizontal pressure difference from the center of the storm to its periphery subsequently causes the wind to speed up and the hurricane to become increasingly dangerous.
Forecasters have other strategies for predicting how the hurricane season might shape up. One is La Niña, the climate opposite of El Niño. During La Niña, stronger trade winds in the Pacific Ocean bring colder water to the surface, creating conditions that help push the jet stream farther north. That tends to exacerbate drought in the southern U.S. and also weaken wind shear there. Less wind shear, courtesy of La Niña can mean more hurricanes. La Niña has been unusually strong in spring 2022, though it’s possible that it could weaken later in the year, allowing more wind shear toward the end of the season. For now, the upper atmosphere is doing little that would stop a hurricane from intensifying. It’s too soon to tell what will happen with the steering winds that guide tropical storms and affect where they go. Even before then, the conditions over West Africa are crucial to whether tropical storms form at all in the Atlantic. Dust from the Sahara and low humidity can both reduce the likelihood storms will form.
Climate change has a role As global temperatures rise, the ocean’s temperature is increasing. That’s because the heat trapped by greenhouse gasses that are released by human activities is stored in the oceans, where it can provide additional fuel for hurricanes. Studies suggest that the Atlantic is likely to see more storms intensify into major hurricanes as those temperatures rise, though there won’t necessarily be more storms overall. A study examined the 2020 hurricane season – which had a record 30 named storms, 12 of them hitting the U.S. – and found the storms produced more rain than they would have in a world without the effects of human-caused climate change. Another trend we have been noticing is that the Loop Current’s warm eddies have more heat than we saw 10 to 15 years ago. Whether that’s related to global warming isn’t clear yet, but the impact of a warming trend could be devastating to people and communities in the path of a tropical storm. .
We are coming off a very busy 2021 hurricane season. Some 21 named storms formed last year; seven of those became hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane strength – Grace, Ida, Larry and Sam. And the 2022 hurricane season is getting off to an early start. A tropical disturbance is over the Gulf of Mexico with an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 2 to 3 days. The center of this storm is expected to reach the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday morning. Watches may be issued for portions of the Texas coast as soon as tonight or early Thursday morning.
It is time to Build a Hurricane Emergency Kit. While nonperishable foods, water, flashlights and batteries may be more obvious, the first thing that should go into your ‘go’ bag should be paperwork — like personal ID, prescriptions, and titles to homes and cars. Also include a battery-powered radio, moist towelettes, garbage bags, face masks, a whistle to call for help, ponchos and emergency blankets With 19 storms predicted to form during what is looks to be a busy hurricane season, the millions of people who live along the coast need to be properly prepared — which includes knowing the best way to get out of town when necessary. In areas like coastal Carolina, evacuation route signs guide motorists on how to get out in case of emergency. Even those who live along back bays rather than oceanfront need to plan ahead, as Hurricanes Michael and Florence proved that those areas can be just as impacted, if not more so.
To lremain informed about the 2022 Hurricane Season as it moves into summer, go to my website, www.EmeraldIsleHomesforSaleNC.com and sign up for my blog. Ready to buy or sell? Call me at 919-308-2292. Explore the video tab for my weekly uploads to my YouTube channel. Subscribe to my YouTube channel and receive free donuts at my Flip Flops Donut shop. Text your email address to 919-308-2292 and subscribe to my newsletter. My book, "Live Where You Vacation" is available on Amazon.com.
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