People buy and sell real estate daily on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. But should you? Today is November 27, 2024. This quick article is about what’s happening in local real estate markets in Emerald Isle and other beachfront and soundfront towns and communities in Carteret and Onslow counties, what we locals call the Crystal Coast. Some people say it's time to buy, but others say it's time to sell. Thirteen major metro areas are buyers markets — where buyers have the upper hand in negotiations, according to Zillow’s market heat index — with most of those in the Southeast. But what does that say about the housing market along the Crystal Coast of North Carolina, hundreds of miles removed from any major metro area? Do you throw up your hands and make one of life’s more significant decisions, to buy a home, based on idle chatter? But, if you prefer making decisions, large and small, on specific data, you are in luck. I’m a numbers guy. I collect and analyze large amounts of complex real estate data, present it in understandable formats like charts, and translate it into actionable recommendations for my clients and customers. I am Denis Raczkowski, and you’re reading the latest blog from the Emerald Isle Vacation Home Specialist.
In making forecasts for my clients, I focus on THREE numbers: Average Days on the Market, List: Sold ratio, and Price trend. The first number is Average Days on the Market or DOM. The timer starts when the home goes into active status when the agent posts it on the Multiple Listing Service or MLS, where agents access local properties for sale. The timer stops on the day the house goes under contract or is removed from the MLS. Why do days on the market matter? Consider two scenarios. First, imagine your home has been listed for 48 hours, and a buyer makes an offer. As the seller, you are happy. You probably didn’t expect to go under contract so soon. The buyer knows that it’s a new listing and will expect you to be pretty rigid on the price. Therefore, the buyer will likely make an offer close to asking. We have a happy, happy seller. But imagine your home has been listed for 60 days or more. Buyers will assume you’ve had a lot of showings but not many offers. They’re likely to make one relatively low offer, knowing you’re probably antsy to sell.
A low days on market average indicates an overall competitive market where homes sell quickly. But if the average days on the market number is high, it suggests a slower market. That’s great, you might say. But what can Days on the Market tell me about a house I like? I'm glad you asked. Consider these scenarios. First, imagine you see a home listed for 120 days, and the average for the neighborhood is 60 days. That should raise red flags. Something is wrong. Either the home is overvalued, there’s a problem with the condition, or both, and further investigation is warranted. But, now imagine yourself looking at a home that hasn’t had a price reduction since its listing 180 days ago, and the average number of days on the market in the neighborhood is 95. You might conclude that the seller is not motivated to sell. But, what if the seller needs to get a specific minimum offer to pay off all parties? The seller is undoubtedly motivated but may have limited wiggle room. Either way, getting that seller to accept a fair offer may be difficult, especially if the house is overvalued. You may have become creative in your offer, and an experienced realtor may be invaluable here. Or, imagine a scenario where you see a home that has been listed for 30 days and has had two price reductions. You can be confident that the seller is motivated and will be receptive to a fair offer. Negotiating with a motivated seller is more likely to end well. So, the average number of days on the market can provide deeper insights into a seller’s mindset, and knowing that, buyers can better develop their negotiation strategies.
But what if you are the seller? When it comes to days on the market, the stakes are even higher for sellers. Newly listed homes typically generate the most interest. If the average days on the market is low (indicating a high demand for properties in the area) the seller can create a strong pricing strategy and set a higher asking price. But what if your home is still on the market weeks, even months later? After the first few weeks, all potential buyers in the area have seen the home, and the hype around the home has dropped. Now, the seller has only a smaller population of new buyers moving into the area to market. In this scenario, most sellers adjust their prices downward. But, if you hire the right agent, you may only need to adjust your marketing strategy. But that is a topic I cover in another article.
Average Days on the Market or DOM is critical in dynamic markets like Carteret and Onslow counties, which cover ten towns and communities spanning over a hundred miles on the Crystal Coast. But, geography naturally divides this real estate market into two broad segments: the barrier island called Bogue Banks and the mainland known as the Crystal Coast. On Bogue Banks, the island has five communities: Emerald Isle, Indian Beach, Salter Path, Pine Knoll Shores, and Atlantic Beach. And now, let’s look at the numbers for these communities. In every one, the average DOM exceeds 100 days. Emerald Isle has the lowest average at 104 days, and the combined towns of Indian Beach and Salter Path have the highest average at 197 days. The homes in Atlantic Beach are just a bit lower at 183, while the average DOM of homes in Pine Knoll Shores is still lower at 130 days. One data point does not make a conclusion, but if you go back through my videos, you will see that current DOMs are much lower than six months ago when, for example, the average DOM in the combined towns of Indian Beach and Salter Path was 309.
But what, if anything, do these numbers tell us about the average DOM of homes on the mainland? For simplicity, I divide the Crystal Coast into six mainland communities. If you find a house in a community not listed on this chart, like Stella, Bogue, or Ocean, put your email in the comments below, and I’ll analyze it for free. Four of the six mainland communities are in Carteret County, the towns of Morehead City, Beaufort, Newport, and the combined communities of Cedar Point & Cape Carteret. Two are in neighboring Onslow County, the towns of Swansboro and Jacksonville. Now, let’s look at the numbers. At the eastern edge of the Crystal Coast, we have the historic city of Beaufort, the third oldest in the state. Here, the average DOM is in the triple digits at 138. But what about Morehead City, the neighboring town to the west? Here, the average DOM is less than half at 64. But what happens when we move further west in Carteret County? Good news for sellers: the average DOM in Newport and the combined communities of Cedar Point and Cape Carteret are in double digits, too.
But what happens to the average DOM when we move further west into Onslow County? In Swansboro, hard on the White Oak River separating Onslow from Carteret County, the average DOM is at 100. But what if we travel further west to Jacksonville, home of the marine base, Camp Lejeune? Here, the average DOM at 59 is the lowest among all ten communities I follow on the Crystal Coast and Bogue Banks. When making offers, I recommend buyers consider how an individual home’s DOM compares to the average DOM in that town or community. Depending on that comparison, maybe the buyer offers more or maybe less. Either way, knowing the average DOM gives buyers a basis for the amount they offer. That can save some money either in the offer or in the negotiations.
But what information about the market and buyer and seller psychology can my second number, list-to-sold ratio or sales percentage, reveal? This is another number to pay attention to. Six months ago, this number was 95% or higher across the board. But what about now? Well, in every community, that percentage remains above 95%, with one exception. That exception is the combined towns of CedarPoint and Cape Carteret; here, the percentage is down a tick at 94. But what does knowing sales percentages do for buyers and sellers? For sellers, sales percentages help set expectations regarding what kind of offer they may receive, and sales percentages can justify what kind of offer buyers make. When the list-to-sold ratio is above 95% in all but two towns and communities, this usually signals a seller's market.
But what does the third number I focus on tell us about the market? Pricing trends help track long-term market trends and get answers to questions like Are prices dropping? Is the market in a bubble? Six months ago, in May 2024, I reported prices decreasing everywhere on Bogue Banks except for Atlantic Beach. On the mainland, half the towns experienced price increases, and half saw prices decline. Let’s look at the numbers for December, 2024. All but one town on Bogue Banks reports an increasing pricing trend. The pricing trend in Atlantic Beach is in triple digits! The one exception is Pine Knoll Shores, suggesting a slight cooling in demand.
But what about the mainland communities? Here, most towns I follow show positive pricing trends, with only Morehead City and Swansboro showing declining pricing trends. Looking at these numbers six months ago, the spring real estate market on Bogue Banks and the Crystal Coast had signs of a buyers' market. Today, as we prepare to celebrate Thanksgiving, this market has shifted back in favor of sellers.
Put your email in the comments below, and I’ll send you a PDF of this chart. If you don’t see a town you are interested in, put your email in the comments below, and I’ll analyze it for free. If you learned something, do me a favor and hit the subscribe button; it’s free. Check out my book, “Live Where You Vacation,” on Amazon and Kindle. Be safe and have fun, and I will see you next week. Happy Thanksgiving! Thank you so much for watching.
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