It’s been a surprisingly quiet start to the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This is the first year since 2017 that a hurricane has not developed in the Atlantic by August 1st. Leading up to this Atlantic Hurricane Season, numerous signs led forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University to predict a summer and fall with above to well above average storm activity. To date, the only things that seem to be missing from a busy 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season are the hurricanes, themselves. For starters, just three named storms have formed so far in 2022 in the Atlantic basin. And, while a third named storm doesn’t normally form until August 3rd, the number of storms does not tell the whole story. That’s because all three named storms in 2022, so far, have had limited impact because either tropical lows did not strengthen at all or they developed so close to land that there wasn’t enough time for the storm to develop. And, there has been no Atlantic named storm since Colin weakened to a tropical depression on July 2nd and this marks only the 4th year in the past 30 years that the Atlantic basin has had NO named storm activity between July 3rd and August 3rd. And, those years were 1993, 1999, 2000 and 2009. To be sure, storm activity normally ramps up dramatically through August and September, when longer tracking and stronger systems typically develop. However, there is no immediate sign of that ramp-up starting.
Neither the American nor the European forecast systems, using supercomputer simulations of more than a dozen atmospheric scenarios, show much of a signal for tropical activity in the upcoming 5 days to come. As of now, there’s no one thing to point to for the lackluster 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season. Some experts point to strong low-altitude winds as a cause. Others point to persistent ocean-bound dry dusty air blown from the Sahara Desert as a source for smothering blossoming thunderstorms from turning into organized tropical lows.
This lower than expected activity is not unheard of so early in the hurricane season, even in years that go on to become quite active. Indeed, we are experiencing several weather factors that usually portend an above-average hurricane season. The first is the weather phases that influence warm and cold water around the Pacific Ocean. These weather phases also are called El Niño and La Niña. Presently, we are in La Niña and in this phase we tend to experience more Atlantic hurricane activity as La Nina sets up conditions unusually favorable for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. Current forecasts from Colorado State University expect La Nina to continue throughout the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season.
The second is Atlantic oceanic temperatures that are currently warmer than usual. This is a testament to both favorable wind patterns as well as a warming world. Together, these two weather factors lead forecasters to continue to project an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
Lastly, history also warns us to avoid placing too much stock on a diminished early-season hurricane activity. This is the first year since 2017 that a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic basin by August 1st. That year, an uninterrupted stretch of nine consecutive hurricanes formed from late August through mid-October including the devastating named storms of Harvey, Irma and Maria. On the other hand, in 2015, there were also no hurricanes by August 1st and that was the most recent year to end up with below average Atlantic tropical storm activity.
But, whether you subscribe to climate change or weather patterns or to history, residents along the Eastern and Gulf coasts are reminded EVERY hurricane season that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Coastal residents and inland residents should prepare the same for every hurricane season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted. To learn more about the extended outlook for the 2022 Atlantic Basin Hurricane season, go to my website, www.EmeraldIsleHomesforSaleNC.com and sign up for my blog. Ready to buy or sell? Call me at 919-308-2292. Explore the video tab for my weekly uploads to my YouTube channel. Subscribe to my YouTube channel and receive free donuts at my Flip Flops Donut shop. Text your email address to 919-308-2292 and subscribe to my newsletter. My book, "Live Where You Vacation" is available on Amazon.com or at Kindle.
Comments