Everyone is talking about how hot Emerald Isle's real estate market is. But is it really? In this video on the February 2025 real estate market, I want to explain the three numbers you need to pay attention to so you don’t lose five or six figures when you buy or sell a home. I am Denis Raczkowski, a real estate expert with the Crystal Coast Realty Group. Stick around, and I’ll reveal the biggest mistake and read to the end when I share market trend information no other agent has with you. If you want more information about the Emerald Isle real estate market, a specific house or living in Emerald Isle, please get in touch with me at 919-308-2292 or raczkowski.denis@gmail.com. Let’s dive in!
While my real estate focuses on Emerald Isle, I follow nine other towns. Water divides these towns into two sectors. Four are on the Bogue Banks barrier island: Emerald Isle, Indian Beach, Salter Path Pine Knoll Shores, and Atlantic Beach. Six towns are on the mainland: Morehead City, Beaufort, Newport, Cape Carteret, Cedar Point, Swansboro, and Jacksonville.
You can get lost in vast data points attempting to analyze our local coastal real estate, from interest rates to employment stats, construction permits, weather events, etc. And, while I like numbers, the more the merrier; when analyzing real estate trends here in Emerald Isle and along the Crystal Coast, I focus on THREE numbers: Days on the Market, List: Sold ratio, and Price trend. Days on Market is a simple calculation. The timer starts when the agent posts it on the Multiple Listing Service or MLS, a proprietary website where agents can access local properties for sale. The timer stops on the day the house goes under contract or is removed from the MLS.
DOM may be a simple calculation, but knowing this number in a dynamic market like the one in Emerald Isle can make you more money as a seller and save you more money as a buyer. Take these two examples. Your home has been listed for 48 hours, and a buyer makes an offer. As the seller, it's a new listing, and you can be firm about the price. The buyer has little leverage and will likely make an offer close to asking. But imagine your home has been listed for 100 days or more. Buyers will assume you’ve had a lot of showings but not many offers. As the seller, you may be pretty flexible on price, and buyers may make one relatively low offer, thinking you’re probably antsy about selling.
Let’s look at the numbers. The average days on the market are over 100 in every town on Bogue Banks except Emerald Isle, where the number is 90. In Indian Beach and Salter Path, the number of 300 is approaching one year. In Pine Knoll Shores, the number is 168; in Atlantic Beach, the number is 159. Looking at these numbers, you might conclude that the Emerald Isle real estate market favors buyers. However, one data point does not make a trend. Stick around to the end where I will show you a chart with multiple DOM data. On the mainland, the average DOM is under 100 in every market except Beaufort, which is 123. It is in the 50s for Morehead City and Jacksonville and in the 80s in the remaining towns
That’s great, you might say. But what can Days on the Market tell me about a house I like? I'm glad you asked. Consider these scenarios. First, imagine you see a home listed for 120 days, and the average for the neighborhood is 60 days. That should raise red flags. Something is wrong. Either the house is overvalued, there’s a problem with the condition, or both, and further investigation is warranted. But, now imagine yourself looking at a home that hasn’t had a price reduction since its listing 180 days ago, and the average number of days on the market in the neighborhood is 95. You might conclude that the seller is not motivated to sell. But what if the seller needs to get a specific minimum offer to pay off all parties? The seller is undoubtedly motivated but may have limited wiggle room. Either way, getting that seller to accept a fair offer may be difficult, especially if the house is overvalued. You may have become creative in your offer, and an experienced realtor like me may be invaluable here.
Imagine a scenario where you see a home that has been listed for 30 days and has had two price reductions. You can be confident that the seller is motivated and will be receptive to a fair offer. Negotiating with a motivated seller is more likely to end well. So, the average number of days on the market can provide deeper insights into a seller’s mindset, and knowing that, buyers can better develop their negotiation strategies.
But what if you are the seller? Regarding days on the market, the stakes are even higher for sellers. Newly listed homes typically generate the most interest. If the average days on the market is low (indicating a high demand for properties in the area), the seller can create a strong pricing strategy and set a higher asking price. But what if your home is still on the market weeks, even months later? After the first few weeks, all potential buyers in the area have seen the home, and the hype around the home has dropped. Now, the seller has only a smaller population of new buyers moving into the area to market. In this scenario, most sellers adjust their prices downward. But that would be a massive mistake. if you hire the right agent, like me, you may only need to change your marketing strategy. This reminds me to reveal the biggest real estate mistake to avoid here in Emerald Isle: forgetting that real estate is local.
Let’s turn to my second number, the List-to-sold ratio. Six months ago, this number was 95% or higher across the board. But what about now? This number was above 95% in every town except Emerald Isle, a tick below 94. 34%. What information about the market and buyer and seller psychology can my second number, list-to-sold ratio or sales percentage, reveal? For sellers, sales percentages help set expectations regarding what kind of offer they may receive, and high sales percentages can also justify a strong list price. As for buyers, they may simply have to accept that sellers have the leverage when this number is above 95% and offer accordingly or merely sit on the sidelines until trends favor buyers. Where do you live now if you are considering moving to Emerald Isle? Put your state in the comments below.
Now, let’s turn to my third number, Pricing Trends. Pricing trends give insight into future market trends and answer questions like: Are prices dropping? Is the market in a bubble? Six months ago, in May 2024, I reported prices decreasing everywhere on Bogue Banks except for Atlantic Beach. Let’s look at the numbers for February 2025. On Bogue Banks, Emerald Isle, on the western end of the island, and Atlantic Beach, on the eastern end, report an increasing pricing trend. Indian Beach, Salter Path, and Pine Knoll Shores Half show decreasing pricing trends, suggesting a slight cooling in demand. But what about the mainland communities? Six months ago, I reported prices decreasing across the board. Today, half the towns show positive pricing trends, Morehead City, Newport, and Cedar Point/Cape Carteret, and three show declining pricing trends.
Now, as promised, I want to reveal a chart that sums up this current real estate market in Emerald Isle more visually. On this chart, price is plotted on the x-axis, and dates are plotted on the Y-axis. My ten towns are color-coded. The main point is that pricing trends are increasing in every town in the market. Six months ago, a chart of these numbers shows that the summer real estate market in Emerald Isle and along the Crystal Coast had signs of a buyers' market. Today, as we enter February 2025, the local real estate market has shifted back in favor of sellers. The bottom line is if you were thinking about sitting on the sidelines until prices come down, you may have to wait for a while.
If you don’t see a town you are interested in, text or call me with your city and email, and I’ll analyze it for free. My phone number is in the description below. Want to know more about the local real estate market in and around Emerald Isle? Click on this link:
to schedule a 30-minute one-on-one call during which I will answer all your real estate questions. Check out my book, “Live Where You Vacation,” on Amazon and Kindle. Leave your email in the comments to receive my free report on the Five Best Reasons to Move to Emerald Isle. Be safe and have fun, and thank you so much for reading.
If you are thinking about relocating to Emerald Isle, where do you live now?