Last year’s record-breaking hurricane season might still be fresh in your memory, but after COVID 19, maybe not. In either case, it’s time to start planning for what could be another doozy. The 2020 Atlantic Basin hurricane season brought 30 named storms. Thirteen were hurricanes, and six were major hurricanes. This is the greatest number of named storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and the second-highest number of hurricanes on record. Last year was the fifth in a row that the Atlantic Basin saw an “above-normal” hurricane season. There were so many storms that 2020 became “the second year in history that Greek letter names were used as storm names after exhausting the usual rotating list of 21 names.
All of these numbers encompass what is called the Atlantic Basin. What is this Basin? Well, the Atlantic Basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Researchers at North Carolina State University predict an extremely active 2021 Atlantic Basin hurricane season, which starts June 1. Here’s what to know.In their annual report released last week, N.C. State researchers say they expect 15 to 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin during the 2021 season, which runs until Nov. 30. Storms are given names once they reach “tropical storm-level winds,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Tropical storms have maximum sustained surface wind speeds of 39 mph to 73 mph.
IS THAT A LOT OF NAMED STORMS? Yes. There were an average of 11 named storms each year in the Atlantic between 1951 and 2020. But since 1991, the Atlantic Basin has seen an average 14 named storms per season. WHAT ARE OTHER EXPERTS PREDICTING? AccuWeather and Colorado State University researchers also also predict a busy 2021 season. Experts at AccuWeather expect 16 to 20 named storms, with seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes — a slightly worse outlook than the one forecast by N.C. State. AccuWeather climatologists examine current weather patterns, compared to long-range climate models in making their determination about what will happen during the heart of the season in August, September and early October. Colorado State University researchers predict 17 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 38 years of past data. At N.C. State, researchers looked at more than 100 years of “Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity” data, as well as “as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.
Now, why should we who live in eastern North Carolina and along the Crystal Coast be especially cognizant of these expert predictions about hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean Basin? There are a myriad of reasons but let me give you three. First, if you look at a map of eastern North Carolina, this land mass sticks way out into the Atlantic Ocean, which in the Atlantic Basin.. This is especially true of southeastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks and the Crystal Coast is a part of both!
Number two is the proximity of the Gulf Stream to the coast of North Carolina. The Gulf Stream is a strong, fast-running, and clockwise-rotating system of warm ocean currents that begins in the Gulf of Mexico, another part of the Atlantic Basin which spawns many tropical storms. The Gulf Stram proceeds through the Straits of Florida; follows the eastern coast of the United States and the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Canada, in a general northeasterly direction; before crossing the North Atlantic Ocean toward Ireland, Great Britain and Norway. The Gulf Stream has a strong impact on the climate of eastern North CArolina and the Crystal Coast. For example, east winds moving over this warm water move warm air from over the Gulf Stream inland, helping to keep temperatures milder across eastern North Carolina than elsewhere in the state. Even in the height of fall and winter, coastal North Carolina enjoys moderate temperatures, ranging typically from 50 degrees on average in January to 80 degrees on average in July, and a portion of this is attributed to the consistent warmer waters of the Gulf Stream which lies less than 60 miles off the Carolina coast. This proximity of this ocean current to the Crystal Coast is why Emerald almost was named Gulf Stream.
Number three is how warm is the Gulf Stream. Just as the water temperature of Gulf Stream impacts the climate of Eastern North Carolina, the water temperature can affect local storm systems that form or meander off the coast of North Carolina. Feeding off the warm water below, upper atmosphere weather systems can and do intensify. For this reason, the Gulf Stream current also has a remarkable albeit dangerous ability to feed and intensify hurricanes and tropical storms which gain strength when passing over warmer waters. This is a phenomenon seen annually along North Carolina's coast. A named storm with tropical level winds of 39-74 MPH encounter the warmer waters off the Outer Banks and BAM! The storm intensifies into a Category 1-3 hurricane. For hurricanes to intensify in this manner, the surface ocean water temperature must exceed 80F. And that explains why the peak of hurricane season in eastern North Carolina, the Outer Banks and the Crystal Coast falls in early September for that is when the Gulf Stream water temperature consistently exceeds 80F. So, there you have it. A bit busier than most hurricane seasons with 18 named tropical storms predicted. Of these 8 will turn into hurricanes, thanks in part to the Gulf Stream and 3 will be major. THankfully, when hurricanes do form, our weather prognosticators have superb models for predicting landfall, and our Crystal Coast towns are sufficiently prepared to handle such weather events, including evacuation as needed. Here on the Crystal Coast, hurricanes are the price we pay for living in paradise. You might think of hurricanes as our serpent.
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