This is Denis Raczkowski with the Crystal Coast Realty Group with a warning: Do not purchase a primary or vacation home along the North Carolina Outer Banks without understanding the unique trends of the coastal real estate market. Today is February 1st 2023 and this is a quick video about what’s happening in the Southern Outer Banks real estate market in Carteret and Onslow counties right now. Because I am a real estate professional, people greet me with “Is this a good time to buy?” rather than with “hi.” A lot of agents will tell you it's always the right time to buy but I prefer to look at the numbers and see what the numbers tell me. There are a lot of indicators that real estate professionals look at and, if you are not careful, you’ll find yourself in the weeds wondering whether to buy or sell. So, I whittled that number down to three, three numbers that you absolutely need to know. The numbers are a three month rolling Price Trend, Average Days on the Market, and List-to-Sale ratio. Before I review these three numbers with you, please subscribe to my video channel now, or at the end of this episode.
Let’s begin with price trends. Generally speaking, we have two coastal markets. One is on the island, Bogue Banks. The other is the coastal mainland abutting Bogue Sound. For the last three months, one trend is apparent: Prices are increasing in the island towns on the west end of Bogue Banks - Emerald Isle home buyers experienced a 12% increase - and decreasing on the east end – Atlantic Beach home buyers enjoyed a 15% decrease. On the mainland that trend is reversed. Buyers in the western part of our coastal mainland, say Jacksonville, enjoyed a single digit 6% decrease in home prices while home buyers in the eastern part in Beaufort, for example, confronted a comparable 6% increase. Prices trending downward is a key dynamic of a buyer’s market, a sign that this is a good time to make a purchase. Prices trending upward usually reflect low inventory, two signs of a seller’s market. Whether prices are trending higher or lower, it does not mean that EVERY house is following one or another trend. And that is one reason to engage a real estate professional like myself when you get ready to buy. Leave a comment to request an interview.
The second number I recommend watching is Average days on the market or DOM. On Bogue Banks, there is a consistent trend. DOM increases as you go from a low in Emerald Isle on the western end of Bogue Banks to a high in Atlantic Beach on the eastern end of the island. On the mainland, the DOM in every town exceeded that of Atlantic Beach on the island, with one exception. Jacksonville experienced a DOM much like Emerald Isle, with 75% of homes sold within 30 days of listing. Low DOM is good for sellers while high DOM favors buyers.
The third number to watch as you enter the Southern Outer Banks real estate market is the List-to-Sale ratio. This number exceeded 95% in every town both on the island of Bogue Banks and the towns on the coastal mainland in both Carteret and Onslow counties. These high numbers reflect the ongoing shortage of homes for sale. Indeed, Emerald Isle and Indian Beach have a total of only 45 active listings. All of this indicates high buyer demand that is causing strong competition and high offers for homes, a classic seller’s market.
A few additional observations worth noting on the current housing market along the Southern Outer Banks. Clearly buyers are out there because savvy buyers recognize that there are benefits even with a 7% mortgage interest rate. First, there is no more panic buying, settling for what’s not under contract. Second, there is more choice. Houses are staying on the market longer so you can visit more options. And third, there is no need to worry about a 30 year fixed mortgage. My advice to you is “Buy and REFI.” Mortgage rates are only going to go down by the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
For sellers, the numbers say that you really can’t go wrong listing your house at this time. Recall what you paid for your house, not what you could have gotten for it back at the height of the market a year or two ago. Request my complimentary 50 house CMA by leaving a comment below and discover your current rate of return. If you are like most of my clients, that rate of return exceeds the rate of return in the stock market. To learn more about real estate trends along the Crystal Coast, subscribe to my newsletter by texting your email address to: 919-308-2292. Or, sign up for my blog on my website, www.EIHomesforSale.com, and subscribe to Emerald Isle Vacation Home Specialist on YouTube at the end of this video. Stay well and stay safe, thank you for watching and leave your comments below.
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